Government Releases 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast
Today, the government announced that projected climate conditions point to a near normal or above normal 2008 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. The season starts June 1 and the government forecasting agency joins a group of others who agree that we will have another busy hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center is calling for considerable activity with a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. The 2008 outlook calls for 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).
An average season has 11 named storms, including 6 hurricanes for which 2 reach major status.
Others who have also predicted an above average season include researchers at North Carolina State University. They are calling for the possibility of 13 to 15 named storms and 6 to 8 of those growing to hurricanes. The NC State forecasters go on to say the southeastern coast of the United States could see 1 to 2 named storms make landfall and a better than 50 percent chance that at least one of the storms will be a hurricane.
Dr. William Gray and his team at Colorado State University say there will be 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes. They also add there is a 45 percent chance a hurricane will hit the east coast!
Finally, there is Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather…his headline reads…”an increased risk of a destructive storm from the Carolinas to New England.” His forecast calls for a near average overall number of named storms, but suggests a heightened risk for the eastern U.S. coastline. Bastardi is calling for 12 named storms, but believes at least 40 percent of the named storms will cause tropical storm or hurricane conditions on the U.S. coastline. Furthermore, with warm waters near the north Atlantic coastline, storms may form closer to the coast resulting in a higher than average storm threat on the East Coast, from the Carolinas to New England.
While all these forecasts are good for preseason hype, when it comes down to it, whether it’s a busy season or a boring season, it only takes one bad storm to make history!
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