To look at our lakes and reservoirs here in Central North Carolina— it would appear the drought is over…

Water supplies like Falls Lake are brimming with water—and communities all across the Triangle are easing restrictions.

Their reasoning: We can’t save any more water than we are now—because the lakes will only hold so much…

And—it’s true in some respects that certain aspects of our drought conditions have abated….

Meteorologist Jeff Orrock at the National Weather Service’s Raleigh office told me that we’ve had enough rain to keep the top soil moist enough to end the agricultural drought—which is good news for farmers.

And the surface water supplies are pretty full— so, he says, it appears we’ve turned the corner in as far hydrological drought conditions are concerned…

But, we need to keep looking over our shoulders even as we turn the corner—-because lurking a few steps behind us is the ground water drought monster…

USGS hydrologist Jerad Bales told me our ground water hasn’t replenished much—despite all the rain…

The tip off is watching how streams react right after the rains stop..

For the first 24 hours or so—they look like this—running high and full..

But they drop off to a trickle quickly—indicating the ground is still so dry that it just sucks up the surface moisture…

Hydrologists say we’ll need close to a year of above normal rains to bring groundwater up to where it should be..

Until that happens—the drought truly isn’t over….

…And we’d best be careful and continue strict conservation measures through-out the Summer—because that nice full glass of water we’re looking at right now—will quickly turn into a nearly empty one once the weather heats up….

—Steve

Link to video & story Steve covered today on NBC-17 

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Yeah—so it rained a few inches—and it’s gonna rain again this weekend—but that doesn’t mean the drought is over.

Like an alcoholic who insists he can just have one drink and stay sober— some communities think because they’re seeing water where there once was mud and grass—they can start backing off on restrictions.

But the water we’re seeing is really creating a false security…

A couple of posts back, we ran a chart showing the role groundwater plays in our keeping our lakes and streams full…

Despite the 2 inches of rain we received in this week’s storm—it was a gully washer..

It came down so hard—most of it ran off into streams and creeks turning them a muddy brown..

It’s that surface flow that’s suddenly pumped up our reservoirs….

Underground, it’s a different story.

Jared Bales, the head of the U.S. Geological Survey in Raleigh told me that when they checked some of the agency’s monitoring wells, there was NO CHANGE in groundwater levels..

Consider the land like a sponge.

Right now—our sponge still needs almost 10 inches of water to recharge itself.

In our last big drought in 2002, it took 8 months for the recharge to occur.

And forecasters say—we’ve still got a good chance the coming months will be too dry to add significant groundwater to our system..

If that happens, state climatologist Ryan Boyles told me we don’t need to have as bad a summer as last year in order to be in a worse situation water-wise than we were in the Summer of 2007.

Instead of rushing to loosen water restrictions—our municipal leaders need to hold on—keep ‘em in place till about August.

By then we’ll know if we need to continue to be tight fisted with our water—or if we can back off a bit and let sprinklers run freely…

—Steve

Link to video & story Steve covered today on NBC-17

If you take a look at some of our local water supplies here in the Triangle, things are starting to look somewhat normal…

Where once we’d seen dryness—there now is water flowing again in smaller streams and creeks…and some bodies of water don’t seem as empty as they once were…

But don’t be fooled..

Just like beauty being only skin deep—the water we’re seeing in just on the surface…

You’ve got to look beneath the surface to understand the real story.

This diagram shows how groundwater flows. When we’re not in a drought, water fills both the yellow and blue area.

Lakes, ponds and streams which are in the midst of that yellow area normally have underground water seep into them, along with surface runoff.

But in a drought, the groundwater diminishes.

Until groundwater “recharges”— lakes, ponds and streams can’t replenish their “base flow” or seepage from underground. They can only get surface runoff.

Our meager winter rains have added little groundwater—only surface water.

That’s why hydrologists are so worried.

Even though our lakes look full—once the warm weather comes— they’ll empty twice as fast because we have no ground water to keep them replenished.

Meanwhile, many of our municipal leaders are still acting way too conservatively when it comes to limiting water use.

We need tougher mandatory rules NOW.

And, they really need to be actively seeking new sources of water immediately—sources that won’t take years to bring on-line.

Here in the Triangle, if the water runs out for Durham and Raleigh, everybody’s fall-back position is “we’ll just tap Jordan Lake.”

Although Jordan lake IS a county resource—it’s not limitless…

It seems to me if you’re a municipality like Durham that’s tapping Jordan now—you need to be in major rationing mode.

And while we’re at it—let’s set ONE standard for water conservation.

Right now—one community’s Stage 2 restrictions are someone else’s Stage 5.

Let’s have a single, state-wide standard—so we’re all looking at the same bucket—so to speak…

With the prospects of a long, hot summer ahead—I’d rather my leaders be extremely stingy with our water now—so we won’t be extremely thirsty with nothing to drink in August.

—Steve

We now know how at least one North Carolina community is going to deal with the situation if the water runs out—and it’s a rather frightening.

Durham has been on the edge of running out of water from its principal drinking supplies like Lake Michie since the middle of last summer.

It’s currently gotten a bit of a reprieve recently, because the December rains have boosted its available supply leaving about about 118 days of water left at current usage levels….

But that city’s water demand has been creeping upwards lately after a small drop in consumption.

With little rainfall predicted this winter to recharge the groundwater, those who chart these things say our reservoirs and lakes could dry up much faster this year as soon as the weather gets hot.

If all of Durham’s available sources go dry they have a plan “B”.

Here’s the plan:

They shut down the water system. Period.

The only time they’ll turn it on is to fight a fire—or for some other life threatening health issue.

And what do Durham’s water customers do for drinking?

The city’s solution: Buy bottled water.

Tom Voorhees-the Deputy city manager says the city’s PRETTY confident that retail outlets will be able to keep a steady supply of bottled water on hand.

But no one’s sure.

And what do you think will happen? Will folks only buy what they need? or will they hoard?

And you can bet the price of bottled water will balloon WAY BEYOND what we currently pay…

Supply and demand, you know…

At a recent town meeting at Duke University, Voorhees was asked WHO will insure there’s enough bottled water to go around IF the city shuts off the taps.

He said that was a job for FEMA.

Does anyone remember what a great job FEMA did dealing with Hurricane Katrina?

Durham’s municipal leaders have been roundly criticized by some in days past for waiting too long to control consumption in the early days of the drought—and for acting too slowly once the situation got serious.

They assure us Durham won’t run out of water.

And no NFL team can ever have a perfect season.

—Steve

Link here to the story Steve covered today on NBC-17

You think the price of gas is expensive? You haven’t been doing your math.

So let me help.

The other day—I stopped at my local gas station to fill up—and because I was thirsty decided to grab a bottle of water.

As I gazed at the bright orange price tag—I began to do some calculations…. I was paying $1.59 for 20 ounces of water. Now there’s 128 ounces in a gallon. 20 goes into 128 exactly 6.4 times. Multiply 6.4 by 1.59 and I was paying a whopping $10.17 a GALLON for what is essentially tap water.

(In the interest of full disclosure I actually had to do the math on a piece of scrap paper I found in the car—-I’m not smart enough to do all that in my head)

It’s no secret we’re in a drought here in North Carolina…And right here on this blog, I posted an updated list of water conservation tips culled from various sources.

One of those tips advised folks to drink more bottled water—to save our local water supplies.

But, I never stopped to think of the cost.

$10.17   A   GALLON !!!

It’s yet another hidden cost of the drought—a drought that many of our municipal leaders were slow in reacting to.

There’s no sense in railing about that issue any more—-because—like water that’s evaporated—we can’t change what happened…

BUT, we can change what WILL happen.

Municipal leaders have to change the way they react to future droughts. They have to enact wiser water use policies—and do more to insure there are permanent conservation measures in place.

Some communities are beginning to see that’s what needs be done—and they are moving in that direction. But, we need to be doing it all across the state—because groundwater doesn’t respect municipal boundries.

We must all realize—water is a finite resource…

Of course— there is ONE upside to the cost of bottled water.

At the price I’m paying right now—it makes 3-dollar-a-gallon gas look like a bargain!

—Steve

Link hereto the story Steve covered today on NBC-17